January 23, 2013 | In: Opinion

How Low Can AAPL Go?

Every since the release of the disappointing iPhone 5, AAPL was sliding in a downhill. Some investors wonder, how low will AAPL go? A few months ago, everyone thought that $600 was an unbreakable support level. A week ago, everyone thought that $500 was an unbreakable support level. So, what’s the deal?

I believe that AAPL will continue to slide, simply because Apple, as a company, is not offering anything new anymore. All its products, including the underlying software, are antiquated. Additionally, competition is increasing and becoming more and more aggressive by the day. Android has surpassed iOS a long time ago as the most used platform for smartphones. Apple’s market share is now dwindling the same way that RIM’s market share was dwindling a few years ago.

More than a year ago, I’ve written a piece on Apple’s demise. At that time, everyone believed in Apple and that the stock will rise to over a $1,000 (I remember some posts mentioning the number $1,333 for some reason) by the end of 2012. Yet it closed the year at nearly half that number ($532).

So, how low can Apple go? I think that by the end of the year, Apple will drop to about $300, simply because hedge funds will start dropping the stock as of April of this year, when the markets start becoming mostly bearish (usually markets perform best in the first 3 months of the year).

Of course, anything can change if Apple surprises us with a new iPhone that exceeds our expectations (and not insult our intelligence with a bigger screen).

I feel bad for Apple – it set the bar (and the expectations) so high even for itself – and now it has to pay.

This article (as well as all other articles on this website) is an intellectual property and copyright of Fadi El-Eter and can only appear on fadi.el-eter.com.

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