Apple finally succumbed to investors’ calls and started producing trash versions of the iPhone, such as the iPhone c and the iPhone s, this has, of course allowed it to make good sales but albeit with a much lower margin than before. Not too bad – but, on the other hand, the market became saturated with these knockouts, which means that not too many people will buy phones soon – especially iPhones, since Apple’s customer base is not growing in an exceptional way. This means that Apple cannot expect to maintain its profit growth, which means that it’ll disappoint investors, which means that its stock’ll go down.

But, there is another reason for the stock to go down. In a couple of days, it’ll be November, which is the month immediately preceding December, which is the last month of the year, which means that all these people who bought AAPL shares immediately after the January effect ended are going to sell to offset their losses for tax reasons, which means that the stock will go down, maybe like last year, maybe more. And how much did the stock go down last year in the last 2 months of the year? 15%, no less!

Some might argue that this year it wouldn’t be the case because Icahn has announced that AAPL is his stock pick, well, only time will tell, maybe AAPL will go up the same way Netflix did when Icahn bought 10% (NFLX literally grew 4 folds – it’ll be interesting to see if it can sustain that unsustainable 275 P/E throughout next year, but I have a hunch that major investors will get out of this stock next February), but I rather doubt it, I don’t think the world is ready for the $1.5 trillion company yet.

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