September 6, 2010 | In: Opinion

Let’s Not Forget About Greece

I think we still have a week or so with this bullish momentum until everyone starts remembering Greece. I am reading more and more articles about Greece every day now. It seems that this will be another major issue in a week or two that will adversely affect world markets.

Here’s what I remarked about Greeks in general:

1- They’re the funnest and most lively people on this planet.
2- They hate taxes (and try their best to evade it).
3- They hate their government, and they don’t trust it.
4- They love their country.
5- They don’t want anyone meddling with their own affairs (that includes you Germany).
6- They love their lifestyle, and they would do anything to maintain it.
7- They can’t be labeled as Europeans if it’s up to Germany to define who’s European and who’s not, they have a different and unique identity. I’m just one of those who don’t buy into this whole European “citizenship”, where countries lose their identities in favor of a bigger, more general identity (that is really more or less a mixture of the German identity financially and the French identity politically).

With no further explanation, and judging from the above (especially 2, 3, 5, and 6) I find it hard to believe that the current Greek government will be able to meet its obligations. I believe that the best thing that the Greek Government can do is to get out of the Eurozone, or risk a potential deeper crisis. No one can tell for sure how Greeks can tolerate these austerity measures that resulted from the death warrant that Greece signed when it decided to become part of the Eurozone. Had the Greeks been using the Drachma, it would’ve been much easier for them to just inflate their currency and print money, but then again, most of the Greek debt is external, and it is over half a trillion dollars, so I’m not sure investors would like to get worthless Drachmas for their dollars. So, if Greece leaves the Eurozone, converts to Drachmas, and starts printing money, then investors will have zero trust in Greece for a very, very long time, and this would isolate Greece economically and politically, at least from the developed nations. Rapidly developing nations, on the other hand, might not have a problem to embrace Greece as their poster child, and this is probably Greece’s strength and pressure point on the EU.

The EU (and subsequently, the Euro) is under a real threat right now, Greece is the second smallest country (after Portugal) of the so called PIIGS nations (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain), and they all have huge problems. Germany does not understand that it cannot dictate its frugal lifestyle and its economy on these countries (where people really like to live). This may be tolerated for a few months, but not for years.

The problem right now is that world economies are so interconnected that we will feel something every now and often from this huge mess, as Obama stated.

Either way, the DOW can’t continue to go up 500 points every week, so someone, somewhere, must find a reason that will drag the DOW lower 500 points, not next week, but maybe the week after. And what better reason there is other than Greece…

2 Responses to Let’s Not Forget About Greece

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The DOW, and the European Debt Crisis « Fadi El-Eter

September 7th, 2010 at 4:48 pm

[...] was expected, but not this week, I even talked about the Greek Factor yesterday, and said that it will probably affect the US markets next week, but apparently someone [...]

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When Will the Euro Collapse « Fadi El-Eter

June 24th, 2011 at 11:42 pm

[...] have talked about Greece, Europe, and the Euro a few times before. I have discussed how Greece is affecting the whole [...]

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